I think that most would agree that if we could suddenly see fleets of freighters packed with commodities heading from Canada to the Orient and more freighters bringing masses of consumer goods in this direction, it would be a safe bet that the recession was on its way out.
According to one of the most obscurely named global indicators; the Baltic Dry Index, trans-Pacific advanced booking for freighters has jumped dramatically over the past few weeks.
Although it remains well below its record highs of last year, the 108-per-cent advance in just the past two months over the fourth quarter of 2008 in booking freighters for the China trade, signals that global trade may be recovering.
By the fall of 2008 shipping rates had fallen so low that about one-fifth of the world's 800 major vessels - the largest dry bulk carriers - were temporarily taken out of service.
But with the supply of available ships down sharply, even a small increase in demand was bound to get the world’s shipping companies excited. Suddenly it’s become extremely difficult to get hold of a vessel.
Other key indicators:
The price of iron ore, a key ingredient in steel, is also on the rise, climbing by a third since October with shipments from Brazil, India and Australia to China's steel industry.
January and February figures are also showing strengths for thermal coal shipments to other parts of Asia.
Grain cargos coming out of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico ... and soya cargos coming out of Brazil are substantially up
To paraphrase Churchill, it might be too early to be signaling the end but it might be the beginning of the beginning.
Sources:
Simpson Spence & Young of London
Freight Investor Services Ltd. of London
Baltic Dry Index
Toronto-Dominion Bank
Bringing balance with the good news news from BUSINESS VICTORIA Issue #2 APRIL 2009
GREATER VICTORIA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
About Business Victoria
Perhaps the most effective Economic Development strategy is to ensure that local businesses - and particularly startups, sustain and prosper; creating jobs and contributing to the local GDP.
As a major element in its Economic Development strategy, Business Victoria is committed to the growth of local entrepreneurism, assisting over 200 start-ups each year with the basics of good business practices. Working hands-on with 100 selected companies for a full year of training, support and counselling over the past 12 years, the school has assisted in the start-up of more than 2,000 firms with success rates in excess of 90%.
Collectively these startups inject more than $3 million into the local economy in their first year alone.
Read Good News Factoids at bottom of page
As a major element in its Economic Development strategy, Business Victoria is committed to the growth of local entrepreneurism, assisting over 200 start-ups each year with the basics of good business practices. Working hands-on with 100 selected companies for a full year of training, support and counselling over the past 12 years, the school has assisted in the start-up of more than 2,000 firms with success rates in excess of 90%.
Collectively these startups inject more than $3 million into the local economy in their first year alone.
Read Good News Factoids at bottom of page
Why the Capital Optimist
OK, there's a lot of bad things out there in the economy and most of it is real and needs to be reported, discussed, analyzed and incorporated into your planning. Having said that, we have come to believe that a greater balance is needed. After all, while things are certainly bad in many parts of the world and our country, here in the Capital Region, we're faring quite well. We won't pretend that everything is one hundred percent, we won't tell you that the economy is booming - because it's not - and we can't even promise that Summer will come tomorrow - even in Victoria! We will however tell you about the sudden jump in Victoria Real Estate Sales and with some media identifying this as the new Great Depression, this blog will illustrate the enormous differences between today and the dirty 30's. Check out the Harris/Decima poll on rising consumer confidence and learn how the world's freight forwarders are having trouble finding enough ships as key commodities are starting to flow again across the Pacific. in the 'keeping them honest' department we will show how one reporter's opinion can sometimes 'colour' a story - giving an unintended perspective. So we hope you'll read and enjoy the Blog and circulate it freely to your friends, colleagues and clients. Oh and don't worry about missing out on the bad news, it'll still be there for you 24/7 anytime you want to know about it.
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." Winston Churchill
"A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty." Winston Churchill
Good News Factoids
Mercedes Benz sales in Canada Jump 20%
Buoyed by a strong first quarter - in fact its best ever quarter in Canada - the auto maker's sales jumped a phenomenal 20 per cent, compared with a 22-per-cent decline for the overall auto market - Company President Marcus Breitschwerdt predicts company's sales will rise this year from 2008 levels, even though the overall Canadian market is expected to have its worst year of the decade. Go figure.
Goldman Sachs post a better quarter than same period 2008
Goldman took markets by surprise this week when it brought forward its financial results to reveal a 13% surge in quarterly profits to $1.66bn - a strong result at a time of frozen credit markets.The Wall Street bank also launched a $5bn (£3.4bn) fundraising in an effort to generate sufficient cash to become the first major institution to pay back emergency bailout money provided by US taxpayers. Goldman hopes to replenish its coffers sufficiently to return $10bn of money from the US treasury's troubled asset relief program (Tarp
Buoyed by a strong first quarter - in fact its best ever quarter in Canada - the auto maker's sales jumped a phenomenal 20 per cent, compared with a 22-per-cent decline for the overall auto market - Company President Marcus Breitschwerdt predicts company's sales will rise this year from 2008 levels, even though the overall Canadian market is expected to have its worst year of the decade. Go figure.
Goldman Sachs post a better quarter than same period 2008
Goldman took markets by surprise this week when it brought forward its financial results to reveal a 13% surge in quarterly profits to $1.66bn - a strong result at a time of frozen credit markets.The Wall Street bank also launched a $5bn (£3.4bn) fundraising in an effort to generate sufficient cash to become the first major institution to pay back emergency bailout money provided by US taxpayers. Goldman hopes to replenish its coffers sufficiently to return $10bn of money from the US treasury's troubled asset relief program (Tarp