We're Baaack...

After a long hiatus this Blog is coming alive again. With life and business getting in the way for many months it was too hard to ge blogging and other things became more imprtant. I know that many of my colleagues would be shocked to hear that ANYTHING could be more more important than blogging or tweeting. But I'm not sure which viewholder has the most rewarding life.

Anyhow there's certainly a role for social media, so long as it's kept in proportion. I almost feel like I've said a bad word in church (get the stake and the bonfire ready for this heretic!) Anyhow as thoghts pop up I'll share what I know and look forward to your creative ideas.

Conference Board provides backhanded optimism to Victoria

The Conference Board of Canada creates a great many reports regarding economic projections. Unfortuately they tend to reinforce the old line that economics is the "dismal science". Four years ago in the middle of our boom they forecast that Greater Victoria's economy would be 'zero'. It ended up the year at an impressive 2.8%. The board has now made their predictions for major Canadian cities and decreed that Victoria would suffer a downturn of 0.3% in 2009 It needs to be noted that most statisticians consider any variation below 1% to be essentially insignificant since it could reflect the process of data collection.

For our part if for once the board is right we would welcome the 0.3% as a relatively soft local impact of a global economic downturn.

Metropolitan Outlook 1: Economic Insights into 27 Canadian Metropolitan Economies: Spring 2009
Report by Alan Arcand , Maxim Armstrong , Mario Lefebvre , Jane McIntyre , Greg Sutherland , Robin Weibe
March 2009, Source: The Conference Board of Canada, 79 pages

Metro Vancouver real estate sales bounce back

Numbers down from one year ago, but a strong surge in the month of March across Lower Mainland and the Island

Real estate sales have bounced back in March compared to February, up 53 per cent in Metro Vancouver, 48 per cent in the Fraser Valley and 34 per cent on Vancouver Island.

Moreover, in some areas prices showed signs of recovery as well.

The numbers are still down significantly from last March but are still encouraging, said Paul Penner, president of the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board, where prices have eked up slightly.

“All the stats are encouraging,” Penner said. “They are going in the right direction.”

Fraser Valley realtors had more than 1,000 sales in March, the first time that level has been reached since last July. But sales are still down 24 per cent from a year ago.

Benchmark prices are also down, just over 10 per cent from last March, though many areas saw small price increases between March and February.

Overall, the average benchmark price was 1.3 per cent higher than in February, at $409,662, though condominiums were down slightly and townhouses were flat.

Things are looking up, Penner said. “Traffic is way up, the amount of phone calls coming into the offices has increased dramatically, the activity is definitely up,” he said.

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Long Live the new capitalists!

TODD HIRSCH

From the Globe and Mail

There are two schools of thought as to what this current economic crisis means, and what's likely to come next.

One group, dominated by our political leaders and central bankers, says comforting words about how the old system will be repaired and restored. Once all of the stimulus packages kick in, the good ol' days of easy-flowing credit will return. Don't worry, they say, things will be back to normal in no time. (If "back to normal" means the greed-driven Wall Street model of capitalism circa 2005, it's doubtful anyone would want it.)

Others see this crisis as the death of capitalism. Greed got us into this mess. Like it or not, we're headed back to the days of socialism and state-controlled economies.

Well, they've both got it wrong. Far from being wiped out, capitalism will thrive in ways we cannot yet imagine. Just as artists in the early 1900s were set free to explore painting in a whole new way, capitalism - with luck - will be liberated by the demise of global finance as we knew it

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Optimism, it seems, is in the genes

Sunny side up

From The Economist print edition

FOR some people in this world, the glass always seems to be half-full. For others it is half-empty. But how someone comes to have a sunny disposition in the first place is an interesting question.

It has been known for a long time that optimists see the world selectively, mentally processing positive things while ignoring negative ones, and that this outlook helps determine their health and well-being

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First time homebuyers show market confidence

Series of positive reports a welcome respite
Vancouver Sun article
By Peter Simpson, Special to the Sun April 11, 2009

I watched the TV news recently, and sat through report after report of - wait for it - positive news!
World leaders were actually getting along, financial markets were improving, weather was predicted to be warm and sunny, there were segments on feel-good human accomplishments, the spectacular new convention centre was poised to welcome the world to our wonderful region, the Canucks were playoff-bound, and housing sales and prices strengthened from the previous month.
Goodness gracious, I can't remember the last time I experienced that many consecutive doses of pick-me-up tonic in one sitting. Even members of the news team were having a great time kibitzing

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Victoria Real Estate Sales Surge

TC article....Residential properties in Greater Victoria are selling at a higher volume than would be expected from the annual spring surge, says a real estate analyst.

But it's too soon to say if the increased sales volume illustrates a trend -- a clearer picture won't emerge until May or June, said Tsur Somerville, a University of B.C. associate professor and director of the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

"The numbers are suggesting a stronger growth than we would normally expect in February and March," Somerville said from Vancouver.

Amid the global economic slowdown, real estate sales dipped substantially in the fall.

Multiple Listing Service sales through the Victoria Real Estate Board rose to 602 in March, up 50 per cent from February

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